Two golden lessons - know yourself and risk management


24-hour gold price

On 6/11/07, gold price has appreciated USD 10 in New York trading session and another USD 10 on the next day of Asia trading session . Should you buy more gold at that time to avoid missing the boat? It seems the price of gold does not stay around USD 800 for too long. To get a better picture, let’s refer to weekly chart of gold.


Weekly chart of gold
From gold weekly chart, gold is in extreme overbought condition. Can the overbought condition be more excessive? Sure, judging from easy monetary policy of the Fed. Can the price of gold reach upper boundary of medium term up trend in the next few months, e.g. between USD 900 and USD 1000? It is possible. However the question is how it is going to reach there?


Gold price(1980-1984)

If you are going to hold gold for the next ten years, then there is no problem buying more gold at that time. The reason is the last high of gold price is USD 850 around 1980. If you adjust the price of gold using 3% inflation, then the price of gold could go to USD 1888(850 x 2.221). If you are short term gold trader, there is no problem initiating a new position in gold as long as you have a tight stop below lower boundary of power trend line. However if you are in between being long term investor and short term trader, then you need to access the situation. You need to know the potential loss and potential gain. From the weekly chart, majar support is 725. Therefore potential loss is 830-725=105 and potential gain is 1000-830=170. Therefore gain to loss ratio is 170/105 = 1.62 which is not really good. A good ratio is above 2. From this setup, it is very important to know in advance of your strategy and investment time frame: long term, short term or in between. You also need to access risk, e.g. potential gain to loss ratio. This is one of main differences between investing/trading and gambling. Investing/trading is not a bet but a calculated risk taking.

Popularity: 21% [?]

Fund screening results for 5/10/07

Below is common themes based on fund screening results for 5/10/07

  • Japan funds - MACD cross-up
  • Small cap funds - MACD cross-up
  • Financial funds - MACD cross-up
  • Energy funds - MACD cross-up
  • Commodities funds - MACD cross-up
  • Technology funds - MACD cross-up
  • Global funds - MACD cross-up
  • US funds - MACD cross-up
  • Europe funds - MACD cross-up
  • Eastern Europe funds - MACD cross-up
  • Asia funds - MACD cross-up
  • Latin America funds - MACD cross-up
  • Emerging market funds - MACD cross-up
  • UK funds - MACD cross-up
  • Italy funds - MACD cross-up
  • Swiss funds - MACD cross-up
  • Sweden funds - MACD cross-up
  • Russia funds - MACD cross-up
  • Korea funds - MACD cross-up
  • Germany funds - MACD cross-up
  • Spain funds - MACD cross-up
  • Taiwan funds - MACD cross-up
  • Singapore funds - MACD cross-up
  • Malaysia funds - MACD cross-up
  • Korea funds - MACD cross-up
  • Russia funds - MACD cross-up
  • Fixed income funds - MACD cross-down

Fund screening results

If you are interested in the results of screening or alert on chart update of funds of a country, subscribe to one of these feeds. Common themes of results of fund screening for more than one country can also be subscribed

Popularity: 27% [?]

Fund screening results for 28/9/07

Below is common themes based on fund screening results for 28/9/07

  • Financial funds - MACD cross-up
  • Energy funds - MACD cross-up
  • Commodities funds - MACD cross-up
  • Technology funds - MACD cross-up
  • Global funds - MACD cross-up
  • US funds - MACD cross-up
  • Europe funds - MACD cross-up
  • Eastern Europe funds - MACD cross-up
  • Asia funds - MACD cross-up
  • Latin America funds - MACD cross-up
  • Emerging market funds - MACD cross-up
  • Hong Kong funds - MACD cross-up
  • Indonesia funds - MACD cross-up
  • India funds - MACD cross-up
  • Singapore funds - MACD cross-up
  • UK funds - MACD cross-up
  • Australia funds - MACD cross-up
  • Korea funds - MACD cross-up
  • Russia funds - MACD cross-up
  • Asia bond funds - MACD cross-up
  • Emerging bond funds - MACD cross-up
  • High-yield bond funds - MACD cross-up
  • Fixed income funds - MACD cross-down

Fund screening results

If you are interested in the results of screening or alert on chart update of funds of a country, subscribe to one of these feeds. Common themes of results of fund screening for more than one country can also be subscribed

Popularity: 27% [?]

Fund screening results for 21/9/07

Below is common themes based on fund screening results for 21/9/07

  • Gold funds - MACD cross-up
  • Energy funds - MACD cross-up
  • Food funds - MACD cross-up
  • Commodities funds - MACD cross-up
  • Technology funds - MACD cross-up
  • Telecom funds - MACD cross-up
  • Health/Biotech funds - MACD cross-up
  • US funds - MACD cross-up
  • Asia funds - MACD cross-up
  • Asia property funds - MACD cross-up
  • Australia funds - MACD cross-up
  • BRIC funds - MACD cross-up
  • Emerging market funds - MACD cross-up
  • Emerging bond funds - MACD cross-up
  • High-yield bond funds - MACD cross-up
  • Fixed income funds - MACD cross-down

Fund screening results

If you are interested in the results of screening or alert on chart update of funds of a country, subscribe to one of these feeds. Common themes of results of fund screening for more than one country can also be subscribed

Popularity: 25% [?]

How to find out stock investors sentiment?

Photo by violator3
Photo by libi18

In case you do not know, it pays to be contrarian. For the contrarians, they love to take opposite position when the sentiment of general market is at the extreme : bullish or bearish. How do you know stock investors sentiment/stock market sentiment? Below is a few sources that are free:

Name Coverage Sample
American Association of Individual Investors Sentiment Survey US stock markets
Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll US stock markets
sentimenTrader Investor Sentiment US stock markets
sentix behavioral indices US, German and Japan stock markets Registration required

Popularity: 16% [?]